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Price Analysis

         AEM 415          FALL 2007       

Course Outline and Reading List

I. Introduction to price analysis.

Read Chapter 1 in Tomek and Robinson (T&R), pp. 1-6.

II. Foundations of price analysis: supply and demand theory.

A. Basic concepts of supply.
B. Basic concepts of demand.
C. Elasticities of supply and demand.
D. Price determination under perfect competition.
E. Supply and demand for agricultural commodities.
F. Length of run.

Read Chapter 2, (T&R) pp. 9-29 and Chapter 3 (T&R),
pp. 30-39, 55-56, and Chapter 4 (T&R), pp. 58-82.

III. Theory of price determination.

A. Under perfect competition.
B. Under imperfect competition.
C. Price discrimination.

Read Chapter 5 in T&R

IV. Empirical price analysis.

A. Overview of empirical price analysis.
B. Supply shifters and how to measure them.
C. Demand shifters and how to measure them.
D. Deflating price, income, and other money measures.
E. Price Indexes.
F. Econometric estimation of supply and demand.
G. Using econometric results to simulate various policy and business scenarios.
F. Price forecasting: an example.

Read Chapter 14 in T&R

Schmit, Todd M. and Harry M. Kaiser. "The Impact of Dietary Cholesterol Concerns on Consumer Demand for Eggs." in Effects of Health Information on the Demand for Food--EU and US Experiences. Wen Chern and Kyrre Rickertsen (editors). CAB International Publishing, 2003.

Kinoshita, Junko, Nobuhiro Suzuki, Tamotsu Kawamura, Yasuhito Watanabe, and Harry M. Kaiser. "Estimating Own and Cross Brand Price Elasticities, and Price-Cost Margin Ratios Using Store-Level Daily Scanner Data." Agribusiness: An International Journal. 17(2001):515-25.

V. Demand expansion programs and their impacts on prices.

Examples of advertisements will also be shown in class.
A. Overview of demand expansion programs.
B. Economics of demand expansion programs.
C. Studies of demand expansion impacts on prices and consumption.

Read:
Vande Kamp, Philip R. and Harry M. Kaiser. "Optimal Temporal Policies in Fluid Milk Advertising." American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 82(2000):274-86.

Kaiser, Harry M., Donald J. Liu, and Ted Consignado. "An Economic Analysis of California Raisin Export Promotion." Agribusiness: An International Journal. 19(2003):189-202.

Messer, Kent, Harry M. Kaiser, William Schulze. "Status Quo Bias and Voluntary Contributions: Can Lab Experiments Parallel Real World Outcomes for Generic Advertising?" NICPRE Research Bulletin 04-03, National Institute for Commodity Promotion Research and Evaluation, Department of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, February 2004

VI. Marketing margins.

A. Theory and explanation.
B. Graphical presentation of two markets: farm and retail markets.
C. Impact of changes in marketing margins.
D. Differences in elasticities between market levels.
E. Total elasticity.
F. Price transmission.

Read Chapter 3 in T&R, pp. 45-55 and Chapter 6 in T&R.

Kinnucan, Henry W. and Olan D. Forker. "Asymmetry in Farm-Retail Price Transmission for Major Dairy Products" American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 69(1987):285-92.

VII. Temporal price analysis.

A. Explanation for differences in price over time.
B. Normal seasonal price pattern.
C. Annual and seasonal price variations and price trends.
D. The cobweb model.
E. Empirical studies.

Read Chapter 9 in T&R

Waugh, Frederick V. "Cobweb Models" Journal of Farm Economics. 46(1964):732-50.

VIII. Spatial price analysis.

A. Market boundaries.
B. Spatial equilibrium models.
C. International trade models.

Read Chapter 8 in T&R

IX. Government price policy.

A. Historical and political background on government price intervention.
B. Economic framework to study impacts of government intervention.

Read Chapter 11 in T&R

Kaiser, Harry M. "An Analysis of Alternatives to the Dairy Price Support Program" Agricultural and Resource Economics Review. 23(1994):158-70.

Suzuki, Nobuhiro, Harry M. Kaiser, John E. Lenz, and Olan D. Forker. "An Imperfect Competition Model of U.S. Dairy Policy Deregulation" Agricultural and Resource Economics Review. 23(1994):84-93.

X. Futures and Options Markets.

Read Chapters 12 and 13 in T&R, pp. 215-262

XI. Additional empirical studies in price analysis.

Details to be announced.


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